Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Stock Market - 3rd Decade of No Gain

Trading

10-Year periods since 1925 - stocks have gained 98.6% of the time (source: Ned Davis Research);
except:
1)
1929-1942;
2) 1966-1982;
3) 1999-2008

April 1999 - S&P 500 index closed at 1362.80

March 25, 2008
- S&P 500 index closed at 1352.99 (accounts for half of $1 trillion invested in index funds); down 18.6% from October 9, 2007 high

10-Year Total Return (adjusted for dividend reinvestment, inflation) = 1.3%/year average

10-Year Annualized Total Returns (not adjusted for inflation)
S&P = 2.46%
Foreign Stocks = 7.18%
U.S. Long-Term treasury Bonds = 7.68%
Inflation-Protected Treasury Bonds = 8.42%
U.S. Small Cap Stocks = 11.92%
REITs = 14.11%
Gold = 14.51%
Commodities = 17.92%
Emerging Market stocks - 19.38%

9-Year Returns = -0.37%/year; worst performing vs. commodities, real estate investment trusts, gold, foreign stocks, U.S. Treasury bonds (up 4.7%/year, up 5.8%/year since March 2000)
8-Year Returns = -1.4%/year
(source: Morningstar Inc.)

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