Saturday, December 29, 2007

New Home Sales Down 50%+

Real Estate

November 2007 - Sales of new single-family homes fell 9% (from October), to12-year low, seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 647,000; down 53.4% from high of 1.39 million in summer 2005 (steepest peak-to-trough decline since 1982), slowest pace since April 1995 (pace of 621,000); since 2006 - new-home sales nationwide down 34.4%, biggest year-to-year decline since early 1991; median sales price of new home dipped to $239,100, down 0.4% from year ago; S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices in 20 broad metropolitan areas of U.S. (measured since 1987), showed price declines in every market for two months (September, October) for the first time ever.


Friday, December 21, 2007

History's Most Influential Businessmen

Most Influential Business Figures in American History
(of top 100 most influential Americans in history)

5) - Alexander Hamilton,
9) - Thomas Edison,
11) - John D. Rockefeller,
14) - Henry Ford,
20) - Andrew Carnegie,
24) - Alexander
Graham Bell,
26) -
Walt Disney,
27) - Eli Whitney,
37) - J. P. Morgan,
45) - Samuel F. B. Morse,
54) - Bill Gates,
67) - P. T. Barnum,
72) - Sam Walton,
73) - Cyrus McCormick,
80) - William Randolph Hearst,
94) - George Eastman,
95) - Sam Goldwyn

(
Source: December 2006 - The Atlantic Monthly)

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Wall Street 2007 - Shanghai, Dubai, Mumbai or Goodbye



October 24, 2007 - Merrill Lynch announced $8.4 billion fourth-quarter loss, most associated with losses in subprime mortgage market; biggest loss in its 93-year history, biggest known loss in Wall Street history; October 30, 2007 - CEO, E. Stanley O'Neal, retired from company. December 24, 2007 - agreed to sell less than 10% stake: 1) $5 billion in new stock (at a discount) to Temasek Holdings (Singapore's sovereign investment company controlled by finance ministry), 2) $1.2 billion (discounted stock) to Davis Selected Advisers (Tucson, AZ); 3) will sell most of Merrill Lynch Capital, commercial finance business, for $1.3 billion to General Electric; January 17, 2008 - reported $9.8 billion fourth-quarter loss (almost matched loss reported for period by Citigroup, company three times Merrill’s size); exceeded analysts’ forecasts, reflected $16.7 billion of write-downs on mortgage-related investments, leveraged loans.

November 5, 2007 - Citicorp reported fourth-quarter write-down of between $8 billion to $11 billion related to subprime mortgages, on top of a $5.9 billion dollar write down announced in October; sold $7.5 billion stake to Abu Dhabi Investment Authority to shore up its capital base; Charles O. Prince III fired as CEO (since October 2003); January 14, 2008 - reported fourth-quarter results - $18.1 billion write-down on subprime mortgage-related exposures (much higher than early November estimate of $8 - $11 billion); disclosed $12.5 billion investment - sold $6.6 billion stakes to foreign investors (including Korean, Kuwaiti governments); $9.83 billion loss for quarter, largest quarterly loss in bank's history; 41% dividend cut planned.

December 10, 2007 - UBS, world’s largest provider of banking services to wealthy, wrote down a further $10 billion in value of its mortgage-backed assets, on top of $3.7 billion charge in October (reported first quarterly loss in 5 years); biggest casualty of American home-mortgage crisis among banks outside United States; sold more than 10% stake to investors from Singapore, Middle East - Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, G.I.C., will invest $9.7 billion, unnamed Middle Eastern investor will inject $1.8 billion into bank; January 30, 2008 - warned it would mark down additional $4 billion in securities, brought total subprime-related residential mortgage write down to about $18 billion, first annual loss since was formed in 1998 merger.

December 18, 2007 - Morgan Stanley posted fourth-quarter loss of $3.6 billion, or $3.61 a share (far surpassed analysts' expectations of $0.39 per share), first-ever quarterly loss in its 72-year history, after taking additional $5.7 billion write-down related to subprime mortgages (value reduced by $9.4 billion, one of largest devaluations on Wall Street); said would sell a $5 billion stake to China Investment Corporation (China's sovereign wealth fund), to shore up its capital = 9.9% stake; chief executive, John J. Mack, took full responsibility, said would forego bonus for 2007.

December 19, 2007 - Bear Stearns reported a steep fourth-quarter loss, the first ever in its 84-year history; lost about $854 million ($6.90 a share) for fourth quarter, compared to profit of $563 million ($4 a share) for same time last year (analysts had expected loss of $1.82 a share); wrote down $1.9 billion related to holdings in mortgages, mortgage-based securities, up from $1.2 billion anticipated last month; January 8, 2008 - James E. Cayne, CEO and 6% shareholder, retired as an employee of the firm.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Gold - 28-Year High

Commodities

November 7, 2007 - gold price per troy ounce = $845.50 (28-year high)

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Business Book of the Year

Financial Times Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year - 2007

(Lazard LLC), William D. Cohan (2007). The Last Tycoons: The Secret History of Lazard Freres & Co. (New York, NY: Doubleday, 752 p.). Six Years at Lazard Frères, Later Managing Director at JP Morgan Chase. Lazard Freres & Co.--History; Banks and banking--New York (State)--New York--History; Bankers--New York (State)--New York--Biography; Banks and banking--France--History; Bankers--France--Biography. Portrait of Wall Street through tumultuous history of this company - from its origins in 1848 in New Orleans, LA as a dry goods store through its dominant personalities (Andre Mayer, Felix Rohatyn, Michel David-Well, Steve Rattner, Bruce Wasserstein) and controversial 2005 initial public offering. Judges believed the book provided "the most compelling and enjoyable insight into modern business issues," in keeping with the goal of the award.

Cohan was awarded 30,000 pounds. He beat five other titles, including "The Age of Turbulence" by Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

Previous winners include:


Thomas L. Friedman (2005). The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century. (New York: NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 496 p.). Three-time Winner of the Pulitzer Prize and Foreign Affairs Columnist (The New York Times). Diffusion of innovations.; Information society.; Globalization--Economic aspects; Globalization--Social aspects.

James Kynge (2006). China Shakes the World: A Titan’s Breakneck Rise and Troubled Future and the Challenge for America. (Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin, 288 p.). Former Beijing Bureau Chief of the Financial Times. China--Economic conditions--2000- ; China--Foreign economic relations. China's hunger for jobs, raw materials, energy, and food and its export of goods, workers, and investments drastically reshape world trade and politics.

Saturday, December 8, 2007

Subprime Mortgage Crisis - Factors

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; HSH Associates; Federal Housing Finance Board; Loan Performance (First American Co.)
(http://www.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2007/12/07/mn_subpprime.jpg)


Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Immigration

Economics

A survey by The Center for Immigration Studies (Washington, DC) reported that immigration over the past seven years was the highest for any seven-year period in American history - 10.3 million new immigrants, more than half without legal status. One in eight people living in the United States is an immigrant, total of 37.9 million people - the highest level since the 1920s.


A good read, from the late 'dean' of immigration economics:

Julian L. Simon (1999). The Economic Consequences of Immigration. (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 434 p. [2nd ed.]). Immigrants--United States; United States--Emigration and immigration--Economic aspects.
Examines each significant economic mechanisms by which immigrants affect natives (transfer-and-tax system, production capital, human capital, physical infrastructure, productivity, environmental externalities, unemployment); concludes immigration is, on the whole, beneficial to U.S. natives (similar experience in Canada, Australia) - immigrants displace fewer jobs than they create, are better educated than majority of U.S. workers, are no more a drain on welfare system than general population.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

In Search of Excellence - 25th Anniversary

Innovation

Thomas J. Peters and Robert H. Waterman Jr. (1988). In Search of Excellence: Lessons from America's Best-Run Companies. (New York, NY: Warner, 360 p. [orig. pub. 1982]). Management Consultants (McKinsey & Co.). Industrial management--United States.

This is the book which, in my opinion, gave life to the business book genre, titles published by business professionals, journalists, consultants and academics for 'popular' consumption. It was one of the biggest selling and most widely read business books ever published; sold 3 million copies in its first four years; most widely held library book in the United States from 1989 to 2006.

Yet, there is great irony. The book was heavily criticized and its 'Best-Run Companies' were shown to be anything but best-run. How, then, could the book have done so well? Probably because the market business was growing: revenue for published business books, number of MBAs graduating from business schools, number of undergraduates earning business degrees; readers seeking books on business for fun, profit, and instruction.

The book began as a McKinsey project on teams and organizations in business. No publishing efforts had been planned. Then, corporate customers began to pay for the conclusions of the study.

The authors: 1) identified 43 companies between 1961-1980 which, in their opinion, constituted a blueprint for success, based on several criteria: asset growth, equity growth, return on total capital, return on equity, return on sales, market/book value [where was realized returns to shareholders?]; 2) distilled the results into eight common themes which, they argued, were responsible for the success of the chosen 43 corporations:

  1. A bias for action, active decision making - 'getting on with it'.
  2. Close to the customer - learning from the people served by the business.
  3. Autonomy and entrepreneurship - fostering innovation and nurturing 'champions'.
  4. Productivity through people- treating rank and file employees as a source of quality.
  5. Hands-on, value-driven - management philosophy that guides everyday practice - management showing its commitment.
  6. Stick to the knitting - stay with the business that you know.
  7. Simple form, lean staff - some of the best companies have minimal HQ staff.
  8. Simultaneous loose-tight properties - autonomy in shop-floor activities plus centralised values.
BUT...Excellent companies these were not.

A) Daniel T. Carroll was the first to weigh in with a stinging rebuke of the book and its conclusions. He was former president of Booz Allen Hamilton’s Management Consulting Division, former chief operating officer and president of Gould, Inc., former chief executive officer of Hoover Universal (later merged with Johnson Controls), both Fortune 500 companies; founder of The Carroll Group, Inc., a management consulting firm.

He published his conclusions in "A Disappointing Search for Excellence," Harvard Business Review, November-December 1983, pp. 78-88. He criticized the lack of deep research, heavy reliance on anecdotes and secondary sources, and superficial conclusions. He seemed to be proved right as a number of the supposedly excellent companies did poorly with a year of the book's being published. The 'lessons' suggested in the book were highly suspect.

B) Business Week (November 5, 1984) published an article, titled, "Oops. Who’s excellent now?". It observed that, of the 43 'excellent' companies in the Peters/Waterman book, one-third were in financial difficulties within five years, particularly in the high technology sector.

C) Michelle Clayman (Oxford BA, Stanford MBA), founder and managing partner of New Amsterdam Partners, an institutional money management firm ($6 billion under management), published a startling contrast in the Financial Analysts Journal (May-June, 1987). titled In Search of Excellence: The Investor’s Viewpoint.” The author studied 5-year performance (1981-1985) of Peters/Waterman companies vs. "unexcellent companies" (in search of disaster companies) - 39 companies from the S&P 500 which ranked in bottom third of all Peters/Waterman criteria from 1976-1980: asset growth (21.78% vs. 5.93%, equity growth (18.43% vs. 3.76%), return on total capital (16.04% vs. 4.88%, return on equity (19.05% vs. 7.09%, return on sales (8.62% vs. 2.49%). Classic growth vs. value choice.

Her results showed that Peters/Waterman companies largely tracked the S&P 500 market index (market returns) while her 'disaster' companies generated returns in excess of the market returns of 12%. She concluded that
so-called 'good companies' don't always make good investments. It would seem that the future cash-generating ability of the 'excellent' companies may have already been factored into the prices of their shares. No so for the 'disaster' companies.

Peters and Waterman focused on innovation (product or process) without regard to: 1) execution of that innovation into real, sustainable, competitive advantage(s) or 2) translation of that innovation into realized returns for shareholders. They focused on financial criteria, not economic results.

I consider that unacceptable. Innovation without 'economic value added', especially in the form of increases in profitability and realized returns to shareholders seems an empty exercise, sort of like 'profitless prosperity' (rising sales without rising profit). Profitability is the key to value - if innovation cannot or does not contribute to increases in a company's future cash-generating ability, then the exercise should be questioned as a waste of time and resources.